The Keystone oil pipeline was abruptly shut down Tuesday morning after a rupture in southeastern North Dakota, halting the transport of more than 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day and raising alarms about potential gasoline price increases, environmental damage, and a long history of mechanical failures.
South Bow, the Canadian company that manages the 2,689-mile pipeline, said it detected a pressure drop in the system and quickly shut the line down. The spill, estimated at 3,500 barrels, occurred about 60 miles southwest of Fargo and was confined to an agricultural field, according to the company.
“The affected segment has been isolated, and operations and containment resources have been mobilized to site,” the company said. “Our primary focus right now is the safety of onsite personnel and mitigating risk to the environment.”
The Keystone pipeline, built in 2010 at a cost of $5.2 billion, carries heavy crude oil from Canada’s tar sands in Alberta to refineries in Illinois, Oklahoma, and Texas. It is considered a key component in U.S. oil infrastructure, particularly for its ability to supply refineries with a heavy crude blend that is not widely available elsewhere. According to Canadian regulators, the line transported an average of 624,000 barrels per day in 2024—the equivalent of more than 26 million gallons.
The shutdown could have swift repercussions on fuel markets. “It could raise prices at the pump within one or two days, but will have a greater impact on diesel and jet fuel,” said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at the University of Houston. “They will make less of diesel and jet fuel when they have less of the heavy crude.”
Diesel, in particular, plays a major role in the U.S. economy, powering trucks that deliver groceries and goods. An increase in diesel prices could ripple across supply chains, Krishnamoorti said.
While the short-term impact may be muted by existing crude reserves, analysts say a longer shutdown would present significant challenges. Patrick De Haan, lead petroleum analyst at GasBuddy said typically refineries have at least a few days supply of crude oil on hand that will insulate them from immediate impacts from the shut down. But if the shutdown continues more than a few days or a week it could become problematic.
Others expressed less concern about immediate shortages. “Even if the pipeline gets cut off completely for, say, 2 or 3 weeks, they have enough crude to continue refining for gasoline,” said Mark LaCour, editor-in-chief of the Oil and Gas Global Network.
The cause of the rupture is still unknown, but early reports indicate that the incident was quickly detected by personnel on site. “An employee working at the site near Fort Ransom heard a ‘mechanical bang’ and shut down the pipeline within about two minutes,” said Bill Suess, spill investigation program manager with the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality.
Oil surfaced roughly 300 yards south of a pump station, but no structures or people were affected, according to state officials. A nearby stream that only flows seasonally was blocked off as a precaution. “I don’t think it’s going to be that huge,” Suess said. “But … we’ve had much, much bigger spills.”
Despite Suess’s initial assessment, environmental advocates are raising concerns over the impact on the rural and ecologically sensitive area. Fort Ransom, a town of fewer than 100 residents, is surrounded by forested hills, state parks, and popular hiking trails.
The Keystone pipeline has a checkered history of spills and mechanical issues. Tuesday’s rupture is only the latest in a series of high-profile incidents. In December 2022, a break in the same pipeline spilled nearly 13,000 barrels of crude oil into a creek in Kansas. That incident kept sections of the pipeline offline for more than three weeks and led to reduced operating pressure after it resumed.
A subsequent engineering analysis found that the rupture was caused by a faulty weld at a bend in the pipeline that had been “overstressed” since its installation in 2010. The land around the bend had shifted during construction, worsening the stress.
According to the Pipeline Safety Trust, the Keystone pipeline has experienced 13 significant incidents in its 15-year history. “Keystone’s incident history illustrates the problematic pipeline’s systemic issues,” said Bill Caram, executive director of the organization. “The Keystone pipeline appears to be on track to hit its average of about a significant failure every year. It’s time to address this pipeline’s shortcomings.”
This latest incident comes amid broader concerns about weakened federal oversight. The Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), the agency responsible for investigating such accidents, lost several senior-level executives earlier this year due to staffing cuts under President Donald Trump’s administration. The agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Caram emphasized the impact of these losses: “To lose anyone will have an impact on safety.”
The pipeline’s long-contested expansion, known as Keystone XL, was canceled in 2021 after years of protests from environmental groups, Indigenous communities, and climate advocates. A 2021 report from the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office documented 22 incidents along the Keystone pipeline between 2010 and 2020—including multiple spills of over 100,000 gallons.
Opponents of Keystone XL warned of exactly the kind of mechanical failures now playing out. Following more than a decade of legal battles and public opposition, President Joe Biden revoked the project’s permit on his first day in office. However, former President Donald Trump—who originally approved the expansion—has vowed to bring it back as part of his “drill, baby, drill” energy platform if reelected.
As of Wednesday, the investigation into the North Dakota rupture was ongoing, and it remained unclear how long the pipeline would be offline or whether operations could safely resume soon. While the short-term effects may be absorbed by existing crude stockpiles, environmentalists and watchdog groups say the longer-term issue is the system itself.
“The Keystone pipeline appears to be on track to hit its average of about a significant failure every year. It’s time to address this pipeline’s shortcomings.” —Bill Caram, executive director, Pipeline Safety Trust
COMMENTS