Trump risks fragile ceasefire in Gaza

Trump supports the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. But is this going over well with the architects of the ceasefire?

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SOURCEForeign Policy in Focus
Image Credit: REUTERS, SHUTTERSTOCK

While President Trump was flying from Las Vegas to Miami on January 25, he talked to some journalists about his plans for Gaza. According to Rob Crilly of the Daily Mail, Trump asked King Abdullah of Jordan over the phone to take Palestinians from Gaza. The U.S. president also revealed his plans to request the same from the president of Egypt.

As soon as this news was published in the media, the Middle East’s focus shifted from the fragile ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon to Trump’s plans. While I write these lines, the governments of Egypt and Jordan (two close U.S. allies) await the coming steps from Trump’s administration after rejecting his ideas with a “hard no.” Trump’s ideas reflect two structural problems (sending the wrong signals and his business mentality) that will have consequences on his policies toward the Middle East and the world.

Signaling and messaging are essential tools for global peace and security, and their importance increases for superpowers like the United States. During his first term, he almost initiated wars unintentionally several times by sending the wrong signals. It’s no secret that the Trump administration is close to the right wing of the Israeli government and adopts its vision for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The question is about the timing Trump chose to reveal his plans.

The ground isn’t paved for any long-term settlement. The ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon are very fragile. The agreement of the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon was extended to February 18 after Israeli violations killed 22 Lebanese. On the other hand, several tensions were raised this week between Hamas and Israel after the IDF blocked the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza because of what it considered Hamas’ violations of the ceasefire. Although the crisis is expected to be resolved, tough negotiations for the second phase of the agreement are on the horizon.

How will things go forward in Lebanon and Gaza after Trump reveals his plans? Egypt, which played an essential role as a mediator in reaching the Gaza agreement, will be more cautious and conservative about its involvement after listening to Trump’s plans. Hamas and Israel may not be interested in reaching any agreement as they see Trump’s endgame. The credibility and trust of Trump’s team will be at stake. Although things will be much better in Lebanon, Israel will interpret Trump’s message as tolerance of more aggressive Israeli movements under its security umbrella.

Trump’s business mentality—his transactional leadership—reveals its disastrous consequences in Gaza’s plans. What Trump suggested for Gaza is enforced displacement and bloodless ethnic cleansing. He doesn’t likely recognize it as such—and that’s a problem. Trump’s comments about Gaza over the last year suggest that he considers Gaza a great spot on the Mediterranean for real estate investments, and he intends to remake the area accordingly. His son-in-law Jared Kushner adopted the same approach in his proposed “deal of the century.”

This is an oversimplified approach to a conflict that started more than a century ago between two contrasting visions of history, world, and justice. After being forced to leave their villages in 1948, Palestinians see Gaza as the land of their ancestors, not as real estate for outsiders. This gap in vision will lead to negotiations between two parties who speak different languages. Trump didn’t even consult with any Palestinian leadership before proposing his plans to Egypt and Jordan. Foreign policy is a type of politics, and it needs to be handled by politicians who see the importance of history, beliefs, and the possibilities for solutions.

Trump verified in his inauguration speech that the United States would use military force to deter its enemies. When asked about how he would execute his plans in Panama, Greenland, and Mexico, he referred to economic tools as a way of coercion. His plans for Gaza aren’t clear, and coercive economic tools against allies may backfire, especially since Egypt and Jordan are cornerstones of peace and stability for the region. The Trump administration may choose to ratchet up the pressure to execute these plans, but the cost of such unpredictable actions harms the U.S. reputation, credibility, and leadership, not to mention regional security.

Tell Congress to call for a ceasefire and stop funding Israel’s massacre of Palestinians here.

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