Quick summary:
• H5N1 bird flu is rapidly spreading in the U.S., infecting dairy herds, pigs, poultry, and humans, with 66 confirmed human cases and one death so far.
• The virus has spread due to large-scale industrial farming practices, creating perfect conditions for transmission and mutation among cramped livestock.
• The U.S. Department of Agriculture delayed mandating milk testing for bird flu until December 2024, after the virus had already spread across 16 states.
• Big agriculture lobbyists have pushed back against stricter regulations, spending over $130 million in lobbying and campaign contributions.
• Farmworkers, often immigrants, are at high risk but face barriers to healthcare access, with many cases likely under reported due to fear of job loss.
• Some state officials, like Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, have resisted federal interventions to contain the virus.
• Trump’s incoming administration, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. heading HHS, raises concerns about weakened public health responses and increased raw milk deregulation risks.
The U.S. is once again on the brink of a major public health crisis as the H5N1 bird flu spreads across livestock, wildlife, and humans. This latest outbreak has been fueled by industrial farming practices that prioritize profit over public health, and the response from government agencies has been criticized as slow and inadequate. Experts warn that the virus could mutate to allow human-to-human transmission, sparking a global pandemic.
Nearly five years after COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, health experts are sounding alarms about H5N1, also known as bird flu. The virus has spread rapidly across the U.S., infecting dairy herds, pigs, poultry, and even humans. Public health officials say the outbreak is a result of failed government oversight and the immense power of agribusiness, which continues to push back against regulations that could stem the virus’s spread.
H5N1 has long been on the radar of epidemiologists, with the first human cases recorded in 1997. The virus primarily spreads among birds but has occasionally jumped to humans. The current crisis began in March 2024 when the U.S. confirmed its first bird flu outbreak in dairy cattle. The infection quickly spread, with more than 30 herds testing positive across eight states within a month.
Experts immediately flagged the outbreak as a serious risk. “There’s a fine line between one person and 10 people with H5N1,” immunologist Rick Bright said at the time. “By the time we’ve detected 10, it’s probably too late.”
Since then, the situation has worsened. As of January 2025, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed 66 human cases of bird flu in the U.S., with one confirmed death in Louisiana. At least 915 dairy herds across 16 states have tested positive for the virus. Alarmingly, four human cases had no known connection to livestock, raising concerns that the virus is evolving to spread more easily between humans.
Industrial farming practices have created the perfect conditions for viruses like H5N1 to spread and mutate. Large livestock farms house thousands of animals in cramped spaces, creating a petri dish for disease transmission. In the dairy industry alone, farms with 5,000-head herds are now common, particularly in the arid western U.S.
“Animal production acts like a connectivity for the virus,” said Paula Ribeiro Prist, a conservation scientist with the EcoHealth Alliance. “If you have a lot of cattle being produced in more places, you have a higher chance of the virus spreading.”
The virus has primarily spread through milking equipment and milk itself, according to researchers. This has led to thousands of infected cows, particularly in California, where nearly 500 cases have been recorded.
Experts warn that mixed-species farms—which house pigs and poultry together—could further increase the risk of a pandemic. Pigs, in particular, are well-suited hosts for influenza viruses, making them a potential bridge for the virus to jump from animals to humans.
In October 2024, the first case of bird flu in a pig was confirmed on a small farm in Oregon. Researchers fear that large farms with multiple species could accelerate the virus’s spread and mutation.
The U.S. government’s response to the bird flu outbreak has been criticized as slow and inadequate. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) did not mandate milk testing for bird flu until December 2024, months after the virus had already spread widely.
Critics say the federal government’s deference to the agriculture industry has exacerbated the crisis. Fearing financial losses, many farmers refused to test their herds or monitor employees for illness. When the USDA did conduct inspections, officials reportedly dragged their feet in sharing critical data with public health experts.
“The agriculture community has dictated the rules of engagement from the start,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
Agribusiness lobbyists wield significant influence over U.S. policymaking. From 2023 to 2024, agribusiness PACs contributed $30 million to political campaigns, and the industry spent $130.5 million lobbying the federal government.
Even top officials in the Biden administration have ties to the agriculture industry. Tom Vilsack, Biden’s Secretary of Agriculture, previously worked as a dairy industry lobbyist, earning nearly $1 million during his time at Dairy Management, Inc.
State-level officials have also resisted federal intervention. In Texas, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller blocked CDC efforts to conduct field studies on dairy farms. “They need to back off,” Miller said in May 2024. Miller, a former rodeo cowboy, is reportedly a top contender for Trump’s next Secretary of Agriculture.
The crisis has also reignited debates over raw milk regulation. Raw milk—which hasn’t undergone the pasteurization process to kill harmful bacteria and viruses—poses a significant public health risk. Yet, some states continue to allow its sale, and anti-establishment conservatives have pushed for deregulation.
In California, where raw milk is legal, two recalls were issued after bird flu was detected in commercial samples. Despite the risks, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been tapped by Trump to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, is a vocal proponent of raw milk. Kennedy reportedly encouraged Mark McAfee, CEO of Raw Farm, to apply for a position within the FDA to shape raw milk policy.
Public health experts have expressed concern over Kennedy’s influence. The CDC and FDA are key agencies in managing public health crises, and Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism and support for unregulated raw milk could undermine efforts to contain the bird flu outbreak.
Farmworkers are among the most vulnerable to bird flu exposure, yet they are often overlooked in public health responses. Many workers are immigrants who may fear losing their jobs if they seek medical care.
“There’s a good chance that a lot of people are going to get sick in the next couple of weeks,” said one health expert.
Farmworker advocates say the true number of human cases is likely under reported due to lack of access to healthcare and fear of retaliation.
“What we’re dealing with is the lack of information from the top to the workers,” said Ana Schultz of Project Protect Food Systems Workers. “I feel like there’s a lot more avian flu incidents, but no one knows about it because they don’t go to the doctor and they don’t get tested.”
As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, experts worry that the federal response to bird flu will worsen. Trump’s record on public health during COVID-19 was widely condemned, and his incoming administration is expected to weaken regulations and favor industry interests.
Rick Bright, a vaccine scientist ousted by Trump during the COVID-19 pandemic, warned that the U.S. risks repeating past mistakes. “By the time we’ve detected 10 [bird flu cases], it’s probably too late,” he said.
Trump’s pick for HHS Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., raises additional concerns. His anti-vaccine rhetoric and support for raw milk deregulation are seen as threats to public health.
The next pandemic, experts warn, could arise from industrial farming practices and a lack of government oversight. Without immediate action, bird flu could become the next global health catastrophe.
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