Quick summary:
• The Amazon stores 150-200 billion tons of carbon, provides 20 percent of the planet’s freshwater, and supports 10 percent of Earth’s species.
• Fires in 2024 reached a 14-year high, fueled by deforestation, drought, El Niño, and climate change.
• Droughts caused record-low levels in Amazon River tributaries, impacting local economies and food supplies.
• Deforestation in Brazil decreased by 30.6 percent in 2024 under President Lula, but scrutiny remains on his environmental policies.
• The Amazon is nearing a tipping point, risking massive CO2 releases, disrupted weather, and agricultural crises.
• The Global Biodiversity Framework aims to conserve 30 percent of land and waters by 2030, requiring urgent national action plans.
• COP16 in 2025 is a critical opportunity for governments to address biodiversity loss and climate change.
The Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the “lungs of the planet,” is nearing an ecological tipping point that could have catastrophic consequences for the planet. Once a vital carbon sink and a cornerstone of Earth’s climate stability, the Amazon is now under siege from deforestation, wildfires, and climate change. Humanity’s opportunity to reverse this trajectory is shrinking—but it is not yet gone.
Spanning over 5.5 million square kilometers, the Amazon is the world’s largest rainforest and one of its most vital ecosystems. It stores an estimated 150-200 billion tons of carbon and carries 20% of the planet’s freshwater to the oceans. The Amazon’s “flying rivers”—air currents that transport humidity—play a crucial role in regulating regional and global weather patterns.
The rainforest is also a haven for biodiversity, hosting 10 percent of all known species on Earth. For the 47 million people who call it home, including 2.2 million Indigenous Peoples, the Amazon provides not only resources but also cultural and spiritual sustenance.
2024 has been a year of alarming developments in the Amazon. Wildfires reached their highest level in 14 years, fueled by deforestation, extreme drought, and the El Niño weather pattern, according to the World Economic Forum. These fires have devastated ecosystems and turned the Amazon’s “flying rivers” into “vast corridors of smoke visible from space.”
Droughts have further compounded the crisis. In October, the Amazon River’s tributaries dropped to their lowest recorded levels, disrupting local economies and threatening food supplies, as reported by The Associated Press. Andrew Miller, advocacy director at Amazon Watch, described these events as “ominous indicators that we are reaching the long-feared ecological tipping point.”
Deforestation remains a significant driver of the Amazon’s decline. Under former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, deforestation surged to a 15-year high. However, 2024 saw a 30.6 percent reduction in deforestation under the leadership of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, marking the lowest level of forest loss in nearly a decade. While this progress is notable, environmentalists have scrutinized Lula for backing projects that they argue could harm the environment.
The Amazon is perilously close to an ecological tipping point. According to a February paper in Nature, “by 2050, 10% to 47 percent of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change.”
If the tipping point is reached, the consequences will be devastating. The rainforest would release billions of tons of CO2 as dying plants and fires accelerate emissions, making the 1.5°C global warming goal impossible to achieve. Altered weather patterns could undermine agricultural productivity and exacerbate global food insecurity.
Miller emphasized that while the Amazon’s future is dire, it is not yet sealed. “Humanity’s window of opportunity to reverse this trend is shrinking, but still open,” he told the AP. Similarly, the WWF’s Living Planet Report 2024 warned of approaching global tipping points driven by biodiversity loss and climate change but also highlighted the potential for recovery through coordinated action.
Despite the challenges, there is hope. Progress in reducing deforestation in Brazil and Colombia demonstrates that effective policies and leadership can yield results. Protecting the Amazon is also integral to safeguarding the communities and wildlife it supports, including endangered species like the pink river dolphin, hundreds of which died this year due to extreme heat and drought.
The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), adopted at COP15 in Montreal, offers a roadmap to halt biodiversity loss by 2030. Key goals include conserving 30 percent of the world’s land, waters, and seas. However, success hinges on strong national action plans, which most countries have yet to submit ahead of COP16.
The private sector also plays a role. To sustain our economies and ecosystems, an estimated $700 billion annually must be invested in nature—less than 1 percent of global GDP. However, current investments in activities fueling climate and biodiversity crises far exceed this amount.
Financial commitments made in Montreal, including $20 billion annually for developing countries by 2025, must be met. Moreover, funds must be accessible to Indigenous Peoples and local communities, who have been stewards of the Amazon for millennia.
The upcoming UN biodiversity conference, COP16, set for October-November 2025 in Colombia, represents a critical opportunity for bold action. Countries must deliver on their GBF commitments and address systemic drivers of biodiversity loss, including over consumption and harmful business practices.
Safeguarding the Amazon and other ecosystems requires transformative action across sectors and governments. Policies for climate and biodiversity must work in harmony, as must efforts to protect Indigenous rights and livelihoods.
As Miller warned, “Humanity’s window of opportunity… is shrinking.”
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