Whether Trump tanks for being vain, corrupt, inept, ignorant, or blindingly stupid, that disgrace would end his cult-driven brand of circus stunts. But not Trumpism, not so fast.
I question whether this election qualifies as our “most pivotal” ever. Either way we survive because Trump’s most shocking, dictatorial megalomania faces considerable institutional obstacles, however long hallucinations last. If he legitimately wins, that supports rather than ends faith in democratic voting; if he loses and must walk the plank, forever whining and committing the very voter fraud he falsely decries, that also demonstrates the system works.
Trump Tyrannous happens only if his empty-headed noise is translated into policy, executive dictates and systemic chaos, signaling more catastrophic, internal failures to apply checks and balances. Where is any evidence that even a less cognitively-impaired Trump can alone unfix everything? It takes a far smarter knave to become a successful Dictator-in-chief, if not a much savvier village of MAGA idiots to pull it off.
Whatever the Trump bluster, his past promises are piffle, on par with how much border Wall didn’t get built, immigration unchanged or outsourcing reversed. The filibuster dooms any federal abortion ban – and Trump is already cornered by his own “states-right” malarky. No president, without Congress and courts, can destroy major, hard-won civil, health and voting rights, unlike backward states. Unless MAGA forces dominate both the House (unimaginable this year) and Senate, how does Trump enact his worst, tyrannical terror tactics? I posit far more likelihood Dems take the House while holding the Senate, admittedly the harder projection.
Only a red wave decimates democracy
Axing democracy demands a commanding, rightwing wave year – and that looks as likely as Trump ever apologizing, showing humility, or learning what effective government does. Whatever his entertainment flummery to vacant enemies of the status quo, Trump has the shortest coat-tails in history – as in 2018, 2020, and 2022. His coat-tails match his tiny hands and, by rumor, undersized appendages. His charisma barely spreads beyond outraged spittle. What about the scads of centrists, or principled Republicans renegades, joining packs of ex-Trump picks and Never-Trumpers? What meaningful Dem officials back Trump?
But what if my projections – that Trump fails to lose as badly as 2020 or Dems fail to take the House – don’t pan out and the horror show comes to pass? Explain then how today’s Trump, in free fall from life-long, malignant narcissistic personality disorders, has a different second term – free of constant chaos, bad planning, imbecility, incompetence, and willful defiance? By hard measures – without MAGA gains on any key 2016 Trump promise except packing the Supreme Court (more thanks to McConnell), what are chances for success against the current, far better organized, opposition coalition committed to stop, if not exile Trumpism? Really, the post-Trump “government” still controls the weather, students are getting forced sex changes during school recesses, and the “enemy within” is stronger than ever? Trump failures, I say.
Despite dumb praise for “iron fist” dictators, even the bizarre Supreme Court immunity waiver will not stop a Democratic House from impeaching the criminal every month, the perfect foil against juvenile, enemy vengeance dreams. Victims or targets won’t be as silent as the first term. What court will act any more sympathetically than the 60 that threw out his bogus voter fraud suits in 2020? I don’t say Trump won’t try to be bad, very bad, but no crude, predatory presidency is, despite his ignorant delusions, all-powerful.
Dictatorship ain’t easy in a democracy
Being a dictator even for a day is a daunting task, well beyond Trump’s evaporating brain power. Even if less demented, Trump lacks key dictator skills – mass political acuity, well-timed propaganda, bipartisan bridges with the (now alienated) military, the biggest businesses (often abused), even solid party alliances (torpedoed by attacking the top GOP senator and non-MAGA House members). Does Trump even have the attention span to secure comrades to offset his countless leadership shortcomings? He is a dolt, mediocre at running his family real estate business, let alone “fixing” the complex worlds of Washington’s federal octopus.
Agreed, another term could be another appalling four years, but bad lies and delusions of grandeur won’t overcome decades of losing and failure. Incompetence will out. Good at one thing – the stand-up comedy con for suckers, but what else? His fistful of bankruptcies, and his bankrupt presidency, speak more loudly than today’s B.S. beyond the pull date. His woeful campaign “strategy” outstrips 2020 blunders: utterly stupid lying about emergency relief, Harris the Communist, the USA as garbage dump, and inexplicable, chronic misogyny. In good and bad ways, he is normalized, without the outrageous, if effective PR scams that once won much free media time.
Thus, despite incumbency, name recognition and grossly-distorted (good) memories about his pre-Covid first term, why can he still not rise above mid to high 40’s voter ceiling numbers? Even though facing a seemingly vulnerable opponent – an outspoken liberal woman of color from a suspect state who didn’t face primary battles, Trump (drop biased red polls) is IMO still losing to Harris by the same 3-5 %. I still foresee a Harris win comparable (or greater) than Biden’s and a retaking of the House.
On the other hand . . .
When Harris wins, the Trump brand is toast – his life then rightly plagued with trials and convictions, even severe sentencing. Ankle bracelets, here we come, and confiscate his passport and treasure. Would America forego the needed emotional finale for this shit-show – a judicial catharsis against “the most dangerous loser in U.S. politics”? A Trump loss invites the GOP slaying a phony messiah whose con job destroyed the electoral efficacy of the party of Reagan. Were Trump to suffer an unexpected, dramatic loss, watch out for the circular party firing squad unseen since McCarthyism. Will not self-interest drive the primitive right to purge a thrice-discredited brand bristling with intolerance, fake patriotism, bad conspiracies and the stupidest Big Lies?
When Harris wins, the flawed, often frustrating status quo system plods on – and that means elections continue to decide leaders, a fed-up majority will (eventually) defeat deadly abortion bans, and government will again foster programs that create jobs, build housing, aid the least powerful, shield minorities from more abuse and discrimination – and remind the world, despite appearances, we are not a nation run by uninformed clods who passively tolerate endless, serial shootings, intolerant fundamentalists, white supremacists, anti-immigrant pogroms, and contempt for dead war heroes.
While still marginal, Democrats in charge will address climate and resource imbalances, even make a dent in gross income and asset equality with fairer taxation. Just think: more opportunities (job growth, spreading the wealth) for bottom economic brackets, better health care coverage for nearly all, vetoes against privatizing Social Security or ruining Medicare, and support for necessary overseas alliances to deter invasions by the worst foreign foes.
No, radical ideologues right or left won’t gain their misguided revolutionary dreams – whether good, bad or unknowable – and incremental advances will again bless the American shores. Unless of course MAGA pulls off an increasingly implausible upset, well beyond Trump, and comes up with far superior dictator types. A Harris win makes that less likely but strongman fascism has taken root here and its removal will take years, if not decades. From The Wild Bunch, “It ain’t like it used to be. But it’ll do.”
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