A new report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) offers a bleak assessment of Gaza’s future under the ongoing Israeli blockade. According to the report, if the current conflict ceased immediately, it would still take Gaza 350 years to return to its already strained prewar economic status. The blockade and repeated military campaigns have driven Gaza’s economy into such severe decline that, under current conditions, even maintaining a basic standard of living for the region’s 2.2 million residents would require monumental changes.
The UNCTAD report bases its projection on Gaza’s limited economic growth between 2007 and 2022, during which Gaza’s GDP increased by an average of just 0.4 percent annually, despite significant population growth. Under these conditions, the report estimates that it would take 350 years to restore Gaza’s GDP to its level from before the recent conflict. Not only has Gaza’s GDP per capita fallen sharply, but as its population continues to grow, the economic strain intensifies. The UN warns that, should the blockade remain in place, GDP per capita will continue “to decline continuously and precipitously,” placing Gaza’s future in severe jeopardy.
Beyond the slow economic growth rate, the report details staggering material losses since the start of the conflict in October 2023, when Hamas attacked southern Israel, prompting a devastating Israeli military response. As of early 2024, UN estimates place the infrastructure damage in Gaza at $18.5 billion—equivalent to seven times Gaza’s 2022 GDP.
UNCTAD researcher Rami Alazzeh, the report’s author, noted that this projection reflects not just the direct damage from the war but the cumulative impact of a prolonged blockade that has left Gaza’s economy “almost paralyzed.” He stated, “We’re not saying that it will take Gaza 350 years to recover because that means that Gaza will never recover.” Instead, the report highlights the immediate need for humanitarian aid, economic investment, and a lifting of restrictions to prevent Gaza from falling further into irreversible economic collapse.
Israel first imposed its blockade on Gaza in 2007, after Hamas took control of the territory, restricting the movement of goods, people, and essential materials into the region. While Israel maintains that the blockade prevents Hamas from acquiring weapons, humanitarian organizations argue it has driven Gaza into economic isolation. Before the recent escalation, international agencies had already described Gaza as “nearly unlivable.”
UNCTAD’s report emphasizes that the blockade has cost Gaza’s economy an estimated $35.8 billion in unrealized GDP growth from 2007 to 2023, equating to roughly 17 times Gaza’s 2023 GDP. According to the report, restrictions on economic activities and essential goods have trapped Gaza in a “de-development” cycle, with each conflict eroding the region’s infrastructure and capacity to recover. As of early 2024, more than 153,000 Palestinians in Gaza are dead, maimed, or missing, with millions displaced due to the unceasing violence.
Israel’s permanent representative to the UN, Ambassador Danny Danon, defended the blockade as necessary, stating, “There is no future for the people of Gaza as long as their people continue to be occupied by Hamas.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also indicated that Israel will maintain “open-ended security control” over Gaza.
The humanitarian toll in Gaza has reached critical levels, with over 90 percent of Gaza’s population now displaced. UN agencies estimate that more than a quarter of Gaza’s structures have been damaged or destroyed, including over 227,000 housing units, schools, and hospitals, forcing people into crowded camps. The report also highlights environmental degradation, as Gaza is now littered with mountains of rubble and decomposing bodies, contributing to growing public health risks.
Medical facilities in Gaza are also overwhelmed. UN agencies report that ongoing hostilities have severely damaged the region’s healthcare infrastructure, and ambulances have been restricted or prevented from accessing certain areas. Gaza’s Government Media Office reports that “all medical and rescue operations have been completely halted by the military administration,” adding that the Israeli army has threatened to target ambulances and rescue teams that attempt to enter conflict zones.
In addition to the blockade, Israeli-imposed limitations on humanitarian aid and reconstruction materials have further hampered Gaza’s recovery. According to UNCTAD, only minimal amounts of aid have made it into Gaza due to border closures, bureaucratic delays, and ongoing security restrictions.
The UNCTAD report underscores that even under ideal circumstances—where Gaza enjoys peace, freedom of movement, and sustained international investment—it would still take decades to restore Gaza to its 2022 economic state. In a best-case scenario, the UN projects that Gaza’s GDP per capita would not return to pre-2022 levels until 2050, assuming an annual growth rate of 10 percent, unrestricted movement, and a significant increase in aid.
However, political conditions further complicate recovery efforts. Key Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have signaled that they would only support Gaza’s reconstruction if a clear path toward a Palestinian state emerges—a condition that Israeli leadership firmly opposes. Consequently, the UN warns that without diplomatic and economic solutions, Gaza could become even more dependent on international aid, pushing long-term recovery further out of reach.
The UN’s findings have led to calls for immediate changes in how aid and support are allocated to Gaza. William Schabas, a legal expert and former head of the UN Independent Commission of Inquiry on the 2014 Gaza conflict, described the situation as “an unparalleled humanitarian disaster.” He emphasized that without a fundamental shift in international policies, including an end to the blockade, Gaza’s economic and human suffering will only continue.
Yet Israel remains resolute in maintaining the blockade. Analysts argue that Israel’s policy effectively cripples Gaza’s economy, blocking exports and severely limiting employment. Advocates for lifting the blockade contend that a more open economic policy would allow Gaza to foster local industry, reduce dependence on external aid, and provide jobs for its young and rapidly growing population.
Rami Alazzeh offered a sobering perspective: “Everybody now calls for a cease-fire, but people forget that once the cease-fire is done, the 2.2 million Palestinians will wake up having no homes, children having no schools, no universities, no hospitals, no roads.” Without transformative change, he warned, Gaza’s chance of a sustainable recovery will remain elusive.
COMMENTS