As Hurricane Milton approaches Florida, its rapid transformation into a Category 5 hurricane has drawn attention to the growing link between extreme weather events and the climate crisis. New analysis reveals that the high sea-surface temperatures fueling Milton’s explosive intensification were made up to 800 times more likely by human-caused global warming, highlighting the urgent need to address climate change’s role in extreme weather.
According to Climate Central, a research organization specializing in climate impacts, the record-breaking sea temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico provided the fuel that allowed Hurricane Milton to intensify at an unprecedented pace. Over just 24 hours, the storm exploded from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, driven by sea-surface temperatures that are among the highest ever recorded in the region.
“Climate change clearly warmed the Gulf waters that fueled Milton’s development, likely supercharging its rapid intensification and making this hurricane much more dangerous,” said Daniel Gilford, a meteorologist at Climate Central. “Fossil fuel pollution is amplifying this threat.”
Milton’s rapid intensification—from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds—occurred over sea-surface temperatures warmed by the climate crisis. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) defines rapid intensification as a storm’s maximum sustained winds increasing by at least 58 mph in 24 hours. Hurricane Milton far exceeded this threshold, with its winds surging by 92 mph in just one day.
The Gulf of Mexico, where Milton formed, is currently experiencing sea-surface temperatures that are at or above record-breaking levels. A rapid attribution analysis by Climate Central determined that these extreme temperatures were made between 400 and 800 times more likely by climate change. The analysis was conducted using the Climate Shift Index, which quantifies the influence of human-caused climate change on sea-surface temperatures.
The upper layers of the world’s oceans have been at or near their hottest temperatures on record for over a year and a half, according to a report by New York Times climate reporters Raymond Zhong and Mira Rojanasakul. “The seas absorb most of the extra heat that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap near Earth’s surface,” they explained. As a result, the same forces driving abnormal heatwaves on land are warming the oceans, creating conditions that are increasingly favorable for the rapid development of powerful storms like Milton.
Milton’s approach comes just days after Hurricane Helene tore through the region, leaving a path of destruction across six states and causing billions in damages. As Florida prepares for Milton’s landfall, communities still reeling from Helene now face another catastrophic storm.
The NHC has issued warnings of a potential storm surge of up to 12 feet in the Tampa Bay area, which is expected to bear the brunt of Milton’s impact. This would be the highest storm surge ever recorded in the region, far surpassing the levels seen during Hurricane Helene. Millions of Floridians have been placed under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders, with local officials urging residents in low-lying areas to leave immediately.
“Some of the same communities ravaged by Helene are now facing this new threat. Millions of Floridians may be asked to evacuate,” said the American Red Cross in a statement. The organization added that both Helene and Milton are stark examples of how extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate change.
Milton is already among the fastest-intensifying storms on record in the Atlantic, according to over 40 years of NHC data. The storm’s rapid growth is a direct result of the unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf, which have been exacerbated by global warming.
The economic toll of Hurricane Milton is expected to be immense. Early estimates suggest that the storm could cause more than $10 billion in damages, placing it among the costliest hurricanes in U.S. history. If evacuation orders are not heeded, the human cost could be similarly devastating. Milton’s expected storm surge and high winds pose a severe threat to residents in coastal areas, particularly in Florida’s low-lying regions.
Meteorologists Jeff Masters and Bob Henson warned that Milton could become one of the deadliest storms in recent history if proper precautions are not taken. “It is very likely that Milton will be a highly destructive hurricane costing over $10 billion for Florida—and Milton could end up placing among the costliest U.S. hurricanes on record, depending on the eventual details of landfall,” they wrote. “The risk is also high that Milton will be very deadly if people in low-lying areas do not heed evacuation orders and flee the hurricane.”
The National Hurricane Center has continued to update forecasts, with the latest reports indicating that Milton is expected to make landfall late Wednesday. As Floridians brace for the storm’s impact, the urgency of addressing climate change’s role in extreme weather has never been clearer.
“Communities along the Gulf and across the world need to prepare for more frequent, more intense hurricanes, and we must drastically reduce emissions to slow this dangerous trend,” said Gilford.
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