Polling reveals deep unpopularity for GOP vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance, raising questions about the Republican Party’s strategy and the potential consequences for the 2024 election.
American voters’ opinion of GOP vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance is causing political observers to question whether Republicans are having buyer’s remorse over selecting him to run alongside Donald Trump in the 2024 election. Vance, who was personally selected by Trump and confirmed by the party through a vote at its convention last week, has quickly become a contentious figure within the GOP.
Vance, a Republican senator from Ohio with less than two years in public office, was an unusual choice. He hails from a state that is not considered a swing state, and his selection did not seem likely to attract new support from crucial voting blocs. Instead, as Tim Alberta of The Atlantic noted, the choice was “born of cockiness,” intended to energize the base rather than appeal to swing voters. This strategy was developed before President Joe Biden dropped out as the Democratic nominee.
With Vice President Kamala Harris now the presumptive Democratic nominee, Vance’s selection appears even less strategic. Polling data suggests that as voters become more familiar with Vance, they increasingly disapprove of him. Aggregate polling data collected by CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten shows Vance with a net favorability rating of -6 points. This rating is the lowest of any vice presidential nominee for either major party since 1980 and marks the first time such a nominee has been in the net-negative range in the week after their party’s national convention. Historically, vice presidential nominees have seen an average net favorability rating of +19 points in the days following their conventions.
Further exemplifying the GOP’s problems with Vance, an Economist/YouGov poll shows that only 34 percent of Americans overall give him a favorable rating, while 42 percent view him unfavorably, resulting in a net rating of -8 points. Nearly a quarter of respondents (23 percent) said they didn’t know enough about Vance to form an opinion. “Frankly, I don’t really understand the pick,” Enten remarked recently, highlighting the growing confusion and concern among political analysts.
Some Republicans have privately expressed regret over Trump’s decision to select Vance. “The road got a lot harder. He was the only pick that wasn’t the safe pick. And I think everyone has now realized that,” one House Republican told Axios. Another member of the House GOP conference added, “On the whole, the feeling is: doesn’t add much. And now with Kamala at the top, the capacity to have expanded the map a little bit… would have been much more beneficial.”
Vance has done little to help his case, making public appearances alongside polarizing figures. At a recent campaign rally, he was introduced by a state representative from his hometown of Middletown, Ohio, who suggested that a civil war might be necessary if Trump and Vance lose the presidential race. Vance did not disavow this alarming notion, further alienating moderate voters and increasing his unfavorable ratings.
If Trump and the Republicans ultimately determine they have buyer’s remorse over Vance, their options are limited. According to Republican National Committee (RNC) bylaws, neither the top of the ticket nor the party itself can remove a vice presidential candidate once they are selected. Trump could pressure Vance, who has frequently kowtowed to him in the past, to voluntarily step aside. If Vance agrees, the RNC could then hold a meeting to select a replacement vice presidential candidate, likely someone pre-approved by Trump. However, if Vance refuses to cooperate, the RNC lacks the authority to force him off the ticket.
There is one possible, albeit complicated, solution: the RNC could amend its bylaws to allow for the removal of a vice presidential candidate. This would require a three-fourths vote from committee members and would need to happen swiftly, as deadlines for naming the nominees in several states are approaching.
The potential repercussions of keeping Vance on the ticket are significant. His deep unpopularity could impact swing states and key voting blocs, potentially jeopardizing the GOP’s chances in the 2024 election. Comparing Vance’s situation to previous vice presidential nominees offers a stark contrast: historically, vice presidential picks have boosted the ticket, not dragged it down.
Republicans must weigh the risks of retaining Vance against the logistical challenges of replacing him. As political analysts and GOP insiders continue to debate the best course of action, the urgency of addressing Vance’s unpopularity becomes increasingly clear.
“Most striking thing I heard from Trump allies yesterday was the second-guessing of J.D. Vance—a selection, they acknowledged, that was born of cockiness, meant to run up margins with the base in a blowout rather than persuade swing voters in a nail-biter,” Tim Alberta wrote.
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