TDMS Research has been doing a lot of comparison in several primary states between exit polls and final reported results. For example, in connection with the Texas primary, TDMS wrote:
“The 2020 Texas Democratic Party presidential primary was held on March 3, 2020. Election results from the computerized vote counts differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. According to the exit poll Sanders was tied with Biden but lost in the unobservable computer counts by 4.5%.
“In this election, candidate Sanders saw the largest discrepancy between the exit poll and computer vote counts. His projected vote proportion fell 4% in the vote counts—a 12% reduction of his exit poll share. The combined discrepancies between the exit poll and the vote count for candidates Sanders and Biden at 4.4% significantly exceeded the 2.9% margin of error for the exit poll difference between the two. The discrepancies between Sanders and Bloomberg at 5.4% was triple their respective margin of error. See table below.
“There is good reason to believe that the exit poll just prior to publishing showed a Sanders win in Texas.“
In the five primaries researched – Texas (-4.0%), Vermont (-6.3%), New Hampshire (-0.3%), South Carolina (-1.4%) and Massachusetts (-3.8%)– Sanders’ computer vote counts were always significantly below the exit polls. Biden’s counts, on the other hand, always went up above the exit polls, except in New Hampshire. The only candidate who went up in New Hampshire was Buttigieg.
Hopefully, the researchers will compute the results for other states, like California, Colorado, and Michigan. But the present results are disturbing in and of themselves. Why should Sanders always go down while Biden almost always go up? The results seriously affect the delegate count.
One might also point out that in the Super Tuesday vote, there were 14 states. All of the results in which Biden won were fully reported within days of the election. But in the three in which Sanders won – California, Utah, and Colorado – the final results were still unreported over a week later. This made it appear that Sanders was further behind than actually true by the time Super Tuesday II rolled around. That probably encouraged voters to choose Biden as the leading candidate.
TDMS Research did similar research in 2016. The result was that Clinton generally went up and Sanders down. We’re just having a repeat of 2016. The criticisms of these results don’t hold water. Even if there are mistakes, why do all the mistakes favor the persons who oppose Sanders?
In 2016, TDMS wrote the following: “In the US, citizens attempting to independently verify the computerized vote counts predominantly rely on exit polls as the means to ascertain the correctness of the unverified computer vote count. USAID in their 2015 booklet “Assessing and Verifying Election Results” stated “[e]xit polls are powerful analytical tools … [a] discrepancy between the votes reported by voters and official results may suggest that results have been manipulated, but it does not prove this to be the case.”
“Although the focus of this report is on the discrepancies between the exit polls and the computerized vote counts, it must be mentioned that other researchers have analyzed the 2016 Democratic Party primaries from related perspectives and their results are not reassuring. Axel Geijsel (Tilburg University, Netherlands) with Rodolfo Cortes Barragan (Stanford University), for example, recently released their working paper on 22 states with votes backed by a paper trail versus 14 states that did not. They found that States with a paper trail yielded higher support for Sanders (51%) than Clinton (49%). States without a paper trail yielded higher support for Clinton (64%) than Sanders (35%).”
What these comparisons show is that there are discrepancies between exit polls and vote counts by computer. The question is why do these discrepancies always favor the DNC? If the discrepancies were random, then the comparison between Sanders and Clinton (or Biden) would be random. But they are not random. The DNC’s candidate always gains in the counting. And that is highly suspicious.
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